Sri Lanka aims to secure a Super Fours position
Despite winning their last 11 ODIs, Afghanistan has a chance to win the Asia Cup if they defeat Sri Lanka.
At this point in the Asia Cup, Sri Lanka had only played one game and won it. But given the structure of the competition, they may very easily be eliminated if Tuesday’s match against Afghanistan goes wrong. However, Afghanistan needs to win, and win big, in order for it to happen. How large will vary on the specifics of the match, but if they were to score 275 runs while batting first, they would need to defeat their opponents by a margin of at least 68 runs or complete any objective in 35 overs or fewer.
It suffices to say that this provides Sri Lanka with a pretty useful buffer, particularly on a Lahore wicket that has been practically ravenous for runs. This will also come as a big comfort to Sri Lanka’s hitters, who have been playing on far less conducive surfaces over the past month, mostly during the LPL.
Nevertheless, the toss will probably have a significant impact. While the team bowling second may have to deal with dew, the side bowling first arguably has it worst because they would have to do it in the sweltering Lahore heat. In fact, Bangladesh captain Shakib Al Hasan said it unprompted in his post-match remarks on Sunday following their victory against Afghanistan, pointing out that it wouldn’t have been easy for Afghanistan to bat after fielding in that heat for 50 overs.
Afghanistan vs. Sri Lanka should be a very level matchup, match conditions notwithstanding. Sri Lanka has won five of the last five completed ODIs between these two teams, 3-2. And this Sri Lankan team now lacks essentially their entire bowling assault of first choice. However, these teams don’t often play close games; four of their five games ended in resounding victories.
If you’re of the Afghan school of thought, that’s encouraging news, but I have to assume Sri Lanka still has the advantage in this one. While Afghanistan still has to refute the idea that their batting is fragile once you get past the top order, Sri Lanka demonstrated against Bangladesh that they still have the firepower and skill to take ten wickets in a game despite their ailments.
Getting attention
Since Rahmanullah Gurbaz participated in every LPL season, the Sri Lankans are well familiar with his style of play. They will be aware that he is a true match winner if permitted to go unchecked as a result. Gurbaz also tends to go big or go home; in his previous ten ODI innings, he has scores of 145 and 151, despite the fact that five others were in the single digits. Apart from his century, his highest score over that time span is 22. Afghanistan needs a firing Gurbaz to pull off this escape maneuver.
The pitch in Lahore makes it so that any outcome is essentially a duel between each team’s hitters, but Sri Lanka has a secret weapon in Maheesh Theekshana. Theekshana is as reliable as they come. In 23 ODIs, he has taken at least one wicket in all but five of the games, and just five times has his economy rate over the five runs per over threshold. The sole qualification is that he played each of these games either at home or in Zimbabwe, both of which offered favorable playing environments for him. He won’t have that luxury in Lahore, but he will undoubtedly look forward to the test.
Team news
Against Bangladesh, Afghanistan’s bowlers had trouble, with the seamers absorbing the brunt of criticism in particular. Karim Janat or Gulbadin Naib might be replaced by Noor Ahmad, while the middle order could also be revitalized by the addition of Riaz Hassan.
Rahmanullah Gurbaz is the likely starting wicketkeeper for Afghanistan, followed by Ibrahim Zadran, Rahmat Shah, Hashmatullah Shahidi (captain), and Najibullah Zadran. Muhammad Nabi (n. 6), Gulbadin No. 7 Karim Janat, Rashid Khan, Mujeeb Ur Rahman, and Fazalhaq Farooqi are the other eight.
Sri Lanka is expected to field an unchanged starting lineup, though Dimuth Karunaratne or Pathum Nissanka might be dropped if Kusal Perera is selected. A wristspin alternative is also offered by Dushan Hemantha.
Dimuth Karunaratne, Pathum Nissanka, and Kusal Mendis (wk) are the likely Sri Lankan candidates. Sadeera Samarawickrama 4, Five Charith Asalanka Sixth Dhananjaya de Silva, 7 Dushan Hemantha/Dunith Wellalage, 8 Dasun Shanaka (captain), 10 Kasun Rajitha, 9 Maheesh Theekshana Matheesha Pathirana, 11
Pitch and Pitch and conditions
Lahore is accustomed to seeing scores of 300, with Bangladesh easily scoring 334 the previous time they played. The temperature is also predicted to be hot and muggy, with probable highs of 37 degrees, though it should drop to about 26 degrees by evening. It might seem obvious to bat first after winning the toss.
Numbers and stats
The second-longest winning streak in ODI history for Sri Lanka would be achieved with a victory. Twelve straight victories have also been achieved by Pakistan (once) and South Africa (twice), but Australia now holds the record with 21 victories in a row.
Sri Lanka has nine victories in 13 games played at Lahore. Their 69.23% winning percentage is the highest of any team that has participated in at least 10 games at the Gaddafi Stadium. Rahmanullah Gurbaz needs 46 more runs to accumulate 1000 ODI runs.
